Drucker’s claim that “reliance on the expert to predict the outcomes of technology is born out of hubris” (Drucker, 1969, p. 524) still holds and will likely continue to be the same. Each development is caused by and leads to several factors, “each independent in its origins,” with the “outgrowth of a separate discipline with its own experts” (Drucker, 1969, p. 524). Aristotle’s syllogisms (a kind of logical argument) are the reason ChatGPT exists today. The statement above sounds bizarre, but Boolean logic was invented in the 1800s to mathematically represent syllogisms. Claude Shannon, in 1937, demonstrated the use of Boolean algebra in designing electrical circuits, which paved the way for GPUs, programming, digital computers, and AI systems like ChatGPT. Claude Shannon could not have predicted that his design of electrical circuits would someday contribute to the fragmentation of human interaction (social media), digital overload and decision fatigue (social media), erosion of creativity through AI-assisted writing, and increased energy consumption and pollution (large AI models lead to high electricity usage and carbon emissions from data centers). This indicates that “the impacts of technology are often quite indirect and by-products rather than main products” (Drucker, 1969, p. 524). Sometimes, even the most direct use cases of modern technology have unintended adverse consequences, leading to “the cost being more than the worth” (Drucker, 1969, p. 523).
The Computerized Provider Order Entry (CPOE) systems in healthcare were designed to reduce medical errors and improve the quality of patient care. However, studies have shown unintended net adverse effects due to clinicians’ overreliance on this technology and diminished critical thinking. CPOE systems with inbuilt clinical decision support (CDS) help clinicians by providing “notifications of drug-drug interactions, warnings about allergies, recommendations for clinical guideline compliance, and more” (Campbell et al., 2007, p. 96). For example, anticoagulants and aspirin are usually not prescribed together. However, this combination is often used for heart protection benefits in coronary care. In this context, using these two drugs together would be helpful, but the CPOE system would trigger an alert warning the clinician. If the clinician relies exclusively on CPOE, they may remove one of the two drugs from the therapy, increasing the potential risk to the patient (Campbell et al., 2007).
Going back to the previous example, even if Claude Shannon could foresee all the negative impacts of technological advancements stemming from his invention, he would not have stopped his development, as there were foreseeable immediate and long-term net-positive outcomes, too. As Drucker puts it, in this new age of technology, we need new decision-makers and decision-making processes built on understanding the history and dynamics of technology instead of focusing on predicting the outcomes of technology or determining what is right or wrong (Drucker, 1969).
References
Drucker, P. F. (1969). Comment: Is Technology Predictable? Technology and Culture, 10(4), 522-527. https://doi.org/10.2307/3101571
Campbell, E. M., Sittig, D. F., Guappone, K. P., Dykstra, R. H., & Ash, J. S. (2007). Overdependence on technology: an unintended adverse consequence of computerized provider order entry. AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings, 2007, 94-98.
